Weerbaarheid becijferd: Een methode om weerbaarheid tegen dreigingen voor de nationale veiligheid inzichtelijk te maken

Note: This report in Dutch. An English-language summary is available.

Resilience has become a buzzword in recent years. Especially since the global COVID-19 pandemic, the idea that a resilient society is better able to withstand external threats and recover from them faster or better has gained popularity. The Dutch government has placed strengthening societal resilience at the centre of its national security strategy. However, until now, there has been no agreed-upon method for assessing resilience in the Dutch context. This study addresses that gap by developing a methodology to assess the resilience of Dutch society against threats and risks to national security.

To develop this methodology, the researchers reviewed existing policy documentation and literature on resilience, identifying 15 different approaches for measuring and quantifying societal resilience. They evaluated these approaches against a set of performance criteria and ultimately selected an approach called “the resilience matrix,” which they adapted to fit the Dutch policy context.

The researchers then pilot tested the method on three specific risks to national security of the Netherlands: extreme weather, strategic interdependencies and disruption of the internet. For each risk category, they organised a separate test session with methodological and policy experts and used their feedback to further refine the content and methodology.

The resulting methodology proposed in this report provides a comprehensive and adaptable framework for assessing vulnerabilities in national security and identifying strategic priorities for strengthening societal resilience against current and future threats. The Dutch government can use this methodology to better understand the resilience of Dutch society and take targeted actions to enhance it.

Table of Contents

  • Chapter One

    Inleiding

  • Chapter Two

    Definiëren van weerbaarheid

  • Chapter Three

    Bestaande methoden voor het meten van weerbaarheid

  • Chapter Four

    Uitwerken van een methode om weerbaarheid in de context van de nationale veiligheid meetbaar te maken

  • Chapter Five

    Reflectie op het toepassen van de weerbaarheidsmatrix

  • Appendix A

    Aanpak van dit onderzoek

  • Appendix B

    ANV waarschijnlijkheid en impactscores per scenario

Research conducted by

The research described in this report was prepared for Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek- en Documentatiecentrum (WODC) and conducted by RAND Europe.

This report is part of the RAND research report series. RAND reports present research findings and objective analysis that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity.

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